A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
