Keir Starmer's Backers Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several hurdles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant campaign, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.