It was 60 days ago when the Villa attacker stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were a sign or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow only three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Title Contenders?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have piled up.
As per the data, in only two games has the team had an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a team who have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent before hoping their star man to bail them out with some precise efforts. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have triumphed in eight consecutive games by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The winger might become the force he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a vital Three Lions star.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and must be appreciated.
