Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
