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Within the widespread uncertainty following the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of meddling, military incursions, and control in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday marked its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and seize its president – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Put aside the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the desire for glory as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could potentially force him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and ongoing controversies fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may live to repent if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.